CME Scoreboard
Prediction for CME (2024-02-28T09:24:00-CME-001)
CME Observed Time: 2024-02-28T09:24ZiSWAS Layout URL: https://kauai.ccmc.gsfc.nasa.gov/DONKI/view/CME/29393/-1
CME Note: A relatively faint partial halo CME in the E associated with a faint EUV wave in AIA 193. Its clear source is a C5.1 class flare peaking at 2024-02-28T09:09Z centered (~S15E31)(there is no associated active region). The CME is also associated with a type II radio burst, faint dimming and tightly woven bright but small-area post-eruptive arcades. The CME overlaps with one or two more CMEs to the north of it. A distinct arrival is seen at L1 at 2024-03-03T08:47Z. The shock is not clearly observed (there is no abrupt increase in plasma data) and STA impact happens first and the sheath and its rotation are clearly seen and with a slight lag at L1, so the most likely candidates for this arrival are CME 2024-02-28T17:48Z and 2024-02-28T23:12:00-CME-001.
CME was not detected at Earth.
Observed Geomagnetic Storm Parameters due to CME:
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Predicted Arrival Time: 2024-03-02T06:01Z (-8.26h, +10.59h)
Prediction Method: CMEFM v.0.1
Prediction Method Note:
Time of Launch: 2024/02/28 09:20Z Plane of Sky 1: 16:40Z; 31.5Rsun; ESE Direction Plane of Sky 2: 00:00Z; 31.5Rsun; WNW Direction POS Difference: 7:20 POS Midpoint: 20:20Z TOL/Midpoint Difference: 11:00 Numeric View/Impact Type: 2 POS Difference Resulted Value: ~6.24 Travel Time: ~6.24 * 11:00 = 68:41 Predicted L1 Arrival: 2024-03-02T06:01Z Error Parameters: - POS Difference: 1 Hour - Travel Time: 5% Notes: Coronagraph Imagery Quality: 2/5Lead Time: 65.60 hour(s)
Difference: 26.77 hour(s)
Prediction submitted by Garrett Imhoff (Other) on 2024-02-29T15:11Z
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